Apple Has Jumped the Shark

Sep 28, 2007 at 1:48 PM
9 comments

I’m an Apple fanboy as much as the next guy (maybe more, I was in an Apple ad as a kid), but Jobs’s ~~first~~ second company has devolved so much of late from a customer-service standpoint that I felt some inexorable urge to write a “predict the downfall of Apple” post. None of their mistakes alone are enough to kill them, but put together it starts looking like Apple vs Microsoft circa 1990-something.

First, the poorly managed approach to locking down the iPhone. Issuing differing statements from different department heads, having Apple Store employees do an end-run around official policy with unlocked phones, and all but effectively pulling a Sony (ala PSP) with the iPhone firmware. Ultimately few companies survive owning the entire supply chain. Eventually, someone comes along with an alternative that breaks through and eventually widens that crack. The alternative doesn’t even have to be better—just different. Apple’s devotion to UI and asthetics cannot and will not sustain the company in the long term.

Web 2.0 as the iPhone SDK? Give me a break. Release a real SDK and grow the iPhone like a true platform, not a sealed revenue brick.

The iPhone’s UI will be replicated and commoditized. Again, it doesn’t have to be better, it just has to be slightly more accessible. The barrier to entry for joining the UIKit club is ~$400. What happens when Verizon ships a free Windows Mobile 7 phone with gesture/haptics based UI?

Second, the iTunes Store. This week’s launch of Amazon’s MP3 store is the first and biggest nail in the iTunes Store’s coffin. Not only is every track higher bitrate and DRM-free, albums cost less. The lower selection is irrelevant—that is a problem that time can and will solve. Amazon made the browse/buy process as trivial as Apple’s store with their download helper and 1-Click patent. It even adds the purchased tracks automatically to iTunes.

By this time next year, Amazon’s store will have at the very least the selection of iTunes, and every other music retailer will be scrambling to clone the experience.

Third: Apple completely fucking the 3rd party “Made for iPod” ecosystem with the latest round of iPod hardware. Not only does my $600 iPhone not work with my “Made for iPod” car adapter, there seems to be zero plan to ever do so. My options are to either A) buy another iPod, B) install (at my expense) a new adapter that conforms to whatever new standard Apple has issued or C) use CDs.

I’m done using CDs. I’m almost done using iPods too.

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[this is good]

Good for you. This is the best thing I have read all day.

[this is good]

I agree with you, I don't own anything from Apple other than 3 years old iPod (first colour screen). As someone who keeps my eye daily on what is happening in the tech world, I have noticed a trend with Apple being so profit driven that I am more and more disappointed with them. You are not alone in your views, I think more and more people will see that overpriced computers, MP3 players and other new products will not fly for too long with consumers who expect more for the money they spend. No matter how cute the design may be...

Schomer replied to Tyson Williams’ comment:
Sep 28, 2007
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Oh, please, Tyson. Saying Macs costs more is such a 90s argument. Go configure an ugly ass Dell tower and put a 20 inch monitor with it and it's not much cheaper than an all-in-one beautiful iMac, which comes with everything - including the Mac OS, which beats Windows in every category.

randy, don't you think you're being a little harsh about the iphone? i mean, it's 1.0. the first phone apple has ever released. and look at how well they did with the thing, in so many areas. touch technology, real web browser, usability... even the updating... is there any other phone in the world that you simply plug into your computer and it updates the OS and apps on it? sure, there are some apps missing, which you might find on other devices. sure the device is closed to external developers (at least right now). but that doesn't mean it's not an awesome device that has every other manufacturer now playing catch-up. even at $600, it was still less than the Nokia N95 ($700), which everyone seems to drool over - and for what reason? a nice camera. otherwise, the N95 is just another hard to use, ugly symbian device.

the amazon scenario is certainly something to watch. but the iphone is solid, and so is the mac.

i don't know if you remember but Apple admits themselves that iTunes doesn't make any money. It barely breaks even. But it's how everyone not only loads their music onto their iPod but it's how they PLAY music on their computer. Even if Amazon gets more sales, Apple won't care. You'll still be playing the song on your iPod. Besides, most people are used to getting their music cheaper than 89 cents. They get it free. Just because you're mad doesn't mean the company will fall. They have an arsenal of cash nowadays.

My post was not about the iPhone, it was about Apple. Despite its shortcomings, I still believe it’s the best mobile phone ever, and likely the best consumer electronics device this decade.

The iTunes Store sells DRMed AAC files that can only be played on an iPod. Whether the iTunes Store contributes directly to Apple’s margins is irrelevant. It contributes indirectly, and it’s inextricably tied to iTunes and the iPod.

These recent events are setting the stage for an alternative to the iPod and iPhone to get a toehold in the market.

[this is good]

I'm right there with you, dude. What's amazing is that was only ~20 months ago and so many of the components for someone to beat (at least the iTunes/iPod parts of) Apple are in place. And I say that as someone who started using a Mac this year for the first time in ~25 years of using computers.

Apple Has Jumped the Shark

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